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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-08-16 04:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160233 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2014 The convective pattern of Karina continues to deteriorate, with the coverage of cold cloud tops decreasing during the past few hours. The low-level center is partially exposed on the northeastern edge of the convective canopy due to about 15 kt of easterly shear. A blend of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB yields an initial intensity estimate of 40 kt. Little change in strength is expected during the forecast period. The vertical shear is expected to decrease a little by day 3, but the cyclone will be moving over somewhat cooler SSTs by then. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the IVCN intensity consensus through the period. The initial motion estimate is 280/09, as Karina is being steered by a subtropical ridge to the north. This ridge will build westward during the next couple of days, followed by an amplification of a ridge well north of the Hawaiian Islands, which should result in Karina's track bending a little south of due west during the middle of the forecast period. By day 5, the ridging north of Karina will weaken as a mid/upper-level trough amplifies off the west coast of North America. This should result in a collapse of the steering currents and a slow and perhaps erratic motion by the end of the period. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 17.8N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 18.1N 123.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 18.2N 125.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 18.1N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 17.8N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 17.2N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 17.0N 134.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 17.0N 134.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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