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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 21
2014-08-18 04:37:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180237 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014 Karina's cloud pattern has changed little in organization over the past several hours. The system remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with all of the deep convection displaced to the west-southwest of the low-level center. The intensity is kept at 40 kt for this advisory, which is only slightly above the most recent Dvorak estimates and is consistent with earlier scatterometer data. The easterly shear over Karina is due to a combination of an upper-level anticyclone to the north-northeast and the outflow from a developing system to the east. The global models indicate that the anticyclone will shift eastward and weaken, which could result in some decrease in shear. However since Karina will be traversing marginal sea surface temperatures during the next several days, only slight strengthening is predicted. This is the same as the previous official wind speed forecast and very close to the latest intensity model consensus. The storm continues to move west-southwestward with gradually decreasing forward speed, and the initial motion estimate is 255/10 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the north of the storm should maintain a west-southwestward to westward heading for the next couple of days. However, the interaction with the developing cyclone to the east and another, weaker, disturbance to the west of Karina should result in a slowing of the forward motion. Around the end of the forecast period, a broad fetch of west-southwesterly flow feeding into the larger cyclone to the northeast should cause Karina to reverse its heading and move northeastward. The new official track forecast is somewhat farther west of the previous one at days 2-5, but not as far west as the latest track model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 17.5N 130.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 17.0N 131.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 16.5N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.4N 134.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 16.4N 134.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 16.5N 136.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 17.5N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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