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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-08-18 10:50:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180850 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014 Deep convection associated with Karina has been pulsing during the last several hours and it remains displaced to the southwest of the low-level center due to persistent shear. The initial intensity remains 40 kt, but this could be a little generous based on the latest Dvorak classifications. The shear is expected to slacken some during the next day or two, which could allow the storm to restrengthen a little. However, significant strengthening seems unlikely since Karina could be affected by some dry air to its west while it remains over marginal sea surface temperatures. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and near the consensus model IVCN. Karina is moving west-southwestward at about 10 kt, and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is predicted during the next 24 hours. The storm is likely to drift westward or become stationary by the middle to late portion of the week when the steering currents collapse. By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to get pulled northeastward when it begins to interact with the large depression to its east. The new official track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 17.1N 131.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 16.7N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 16.4N 133.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.3N 134.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 16.3N 135.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 17.6N 135.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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