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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 28
2014-08-19 22:37:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 192037 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014 Although Dvorak T-numbers no longer directly support 45 knots, visible satellite images show that Karina still has a vigorous circulation. An 1807 UTC ASCAT-B overpass missed the low-level center and the western half of the circulation where stronger winds could exist, but one 38-kt surface wind vector was indicated southeast of the center. Assuming that stronger winds could exist west of the center, the initial intensity is being kept at 45 knots until we have more solid evidence of weakening. The outflow of large Tropical Storm Lowell located to the east will likely induce some moderate shear over Karina, but it should not be strong enough to weaken the cyclone significantly. Karina most likely will experience some fluctuations in intensity during the next 2 to 3 days because of the marginal environment. After that time, as Karina gradually becomes pulled northeastward and northward by the flow around Lowell, it will encounter cooler waters and the cyclone will likely weaken. Karina is moving westward at 4 knots. The steering currents are forecast to collapse, and Karina is expected to drift westward or even meander for the next 2 to 3 days. Then, as Lowell passes to the north, the cyclone should turn northeastward with increased forward speed within the southwesterly flow associated with the large circulation of Lowell. The NHC forecast follows the trend of the dynamical guidance, which unanimously brings Karina northeastward toward Lowell. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 15.7N 134.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 15.7N 135.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 15.7N 136.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 15.8N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 15.8N 136.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 18.5N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 23.5N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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