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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 30
2014-08-20 10:42:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200841 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 Although Karina's low-level center is embedded beneath the cold cirrus canopy, microwave imagery indicates that it is located on the northeastern edge of the deep convection. TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates have not changed from six hours ago, and a 0602 UTC ASCAT pass confirmed that maximum winds are about 45 kt. Moderate east-northeasterly to easterly shear is expected to continue affecting Karina during the next several days, and thermodynamic conditions will gradually become less favorable once the cyclone begins gaining some latitude beyond day 3. The official NHC intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the previous forecast, holding Karina steady at 45 kt for the next 48 hours and then showing weakening to a remnant low by day 5 over significantly colder water. This scenario is very close to the SHIPS and LGEM models, as well as the ICON intensity consensus. Karina continues to move slowly westward with an initial motion of 270/4 kt. All of the track models now indicate that Karina will slow down and turn southward, making a small counterclockwise loop during the next 48 hours as it comes under the influence of Tropical Storm Lowell's larger circulation. Karina will then backtrack on its past track, accelerating northeastward and northward between days 3 and 5 while it swings around the south and east sides of Lowell. As mentioned in the previous forecast, the track guidance had been shifting eastward in recent cycles, and that trend has continued. Therefore, the NHC track forecast is again pushed eastward, although it still lies along the left side of the guidance envelope near the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.9N 135.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 15.9N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 15.5N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 15.2N 135.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 15.3N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 25.5N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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