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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 31
2014-08-20 16:35:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 201435 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 Karina's cloud pattern has become a little better organized with the center embedded within the deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are T3.5 on the Dvorak scale at 1200 UTC. Since that time, deep convection has decreased a little, and the initial intensity is set at 50 kt instead of the 55 kt supported by the Dvorak numbers. As long as Karina remains over warm waters and moderate shear, there will be small fluctuations in intensity. Once the cyclone moves away from the deep tropics in 3 days or so, it will encounter cooler waters and it will begin to weaken. The NHC forecast follows the intensity consensus model, which keeps Karina at 50 kt for at least 3 more days. As anticipated, Karina has moved very little and most likely will meander or remain nearly stationary for the next 24 hours. As soon as Karina begins to feel the influence of Tropical Storm Lowell's larger circulation in 36 hours or so, it will begin to drift eastward and then northeastward with an increase in forward speed around the south and east sides of Lowell. Guidance has not changed significantly, and the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, and very close to the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 15.8N 136.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 15.8N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 15.2N 136.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 15.2N 135.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 20.5N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 26.5N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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