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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 32
2014-08-20 22:49:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 202048 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 Karina's cloud pattern has continued to become a little better organized today with a mid-level eye feature in microwave imagery and increasing convective bands. There are no signs of shear at this time since the outflow is fairly symmetric. Based on satellite estimates of T3.5 on the Dvorak scale from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is set at 55 knots. As long as Karina remains over warm waters and in a weak shear environment, there is a possibility of some strengthening, but it is more likely that the storm will fluctuate in intensity during the next 24 hours as suggested by most of the intensity guidance. After that time, gradual weakening should begin as the storm moves over cooler waters. Karina is embedded in very light steering currents, and consequently the storm has barely moved today. Little motion is anticipated during the next 24 hours. Karina will then begin to drift eastward, followed by a northeastward motion with a small increase in forward speed around the south and east sides of the large circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell. The guidance has been very persistent with this scenario, and the NHC forecast follows the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 15.7N 136.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 15.7N 136.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 15.2N 136.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 15.1N 135.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 15.5N 135.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 17.5N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 21.0N 128.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 27.0N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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