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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 34
2014-08-21 10:38:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 210838 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 Karina is being affected by moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear, with the low-level center located on the northeastern edge of the deep convection. Subjective and objective T-numbers have decreased from 6 hours ago, and a blend of the T-numbers and CI numbers supports bringing the maximum winds down to 45 kt. Water vapor imagery shows an expansive area of dry mid-/upper-level air surging southward on the west side of Tropical Storm Lowell toward Karina. This flow will likely continue to disrupt Karina's structure during the next day or so, and drier air may also begin to infiltrate into the cyclone's circulation. In addition, Karina will be moving over sub-26C water in about 3 days. All these factors argue for little change in intensity during the next 48 hours, followed by weakening and degeneration to a remnant low by day 4. The updated NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, mainly due to the lower initial intensity, and it is fairly close to the intensity consensus. Recent microwave images suggest that Karina has been drifting east-southeastward, and the initial motion estimate is 110/2 kt. The cyclone is likely to drift southeastward and east-southeastward for the next 24 hours. After that time, the distance between Karina and Lowell will be decreasing, and Karina will respond by accelerating northeastward and then northward around the east side of Lowell beyond 48 hours. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and no significant changes from the previous NHC forecast were required on this advisory. Although a 5-day point is given, Karina will likely be in the process of becoming absorbed by Lowell, and it is possible that a surface center may no longer exist at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 15.6N 136.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 15.3N 136.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 15.1N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 15.6N 134.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 16.5N 133.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 22.5N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z 28.5N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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