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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 35
2014-08-21 16:35:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 211435 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 Although Karina's appearance on geostationary satellite imagery is not very impressive, a recent GPM microwave satellite image showed a partial eyewall feature. This indicates that the inner core is well defined, and the intensity estimate is increased to 50 kt, which is a little above the latest Dvorak estimates. It appears that the vertical shear over the storm has relaxed a little, but Karina is over marginal sea surface temperatures and the forecast track takes the cyclone over cooler waters. A weakening trend is likely to commence in 24 hours or so, as shown by the official wind speed forecast. This forecast is a little below the intensity model consensus. Based on an excellent fix from the aforementioned microwave image, the center has been repositioned a bit south of the previously estimated track. This yields an initial motion estimate of 180/2 kt. Karina remains in an environment of weak steering currents at this time. However, as the larger Hurricane Lowell moves northwest, the separation distance between Karina and Lowell will be decreasing, which will increase the influence of the latter cyclone on the former. The flow over the southern and southeastern portions of Lowell's circulation should cause Karina to turn toward the northeast with some acceleration over the next few days, and eventually move northward to north-northwestward late in the period. The official forecast is a little slower than the dynamical model consensus, and similar to the latest Florida State University Superensemble track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 15.0N 136.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 14.8N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 15.0N 135.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 15.6N 135.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 16.4N 134.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 18.5N 131.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 23.0N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1200Z 27.5N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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