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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 38
2014-08-22 10:59:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 220859 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Karina's convective structure has changed little during the past few hours. An 0613 UTC ASCAT-B pass just clipped the western portion of the cyclone's circulation and showed some reliable 50-kt barbs. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. A 12-hour motion estimate yields 085/4 kt, although satellite animation seems to suggest that the cyclone is beginning to be pulled northeastward. Karina's movement will be at the mercy of Tropical Storms Lowell and Marie through the entire forecast period. For the first 3-4 days, Karina is forecast to move generally northeastward on the southern side of Lowell. The big difference from previous model cycles is that the guidance no longer shows Karina being absorbed by Lowell. Instead, Karina slows down when it begins to feel the circulation of Marie. The track guidance has slowed down and shifted significantly to the west by days 4 and 5, and the updated NHC track forecast has been pulled southward at those times, but it is still on the northern edge of the guidance envelope. Karina's updated track keeps it over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for another 48 hours or so. Vertical shear may increase a little, but overall little change in intensity is forecast during the next day or two. Weakening should commence by 48 hours when Karina moves over cooler water and into a drier air mass. However, since the forecast track has been pulled southward, Karina may not weaken quite as fast as previously thought, and the updated NHC forecast keeps Karina as a tropical cyclone through day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 14.8N 135.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 15.3N 135.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 16.2N 134.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 17.0N 133.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 17.6N 132.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 22.5N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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