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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 39
2014-08-22 16:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 221437 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Conventional satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern of Karina has been improving during the past 6 hours, and a banding eye feature is becoming apparent in the most recent images. An ADT objective intensity estimate and a Dvorak classification from TAFB support an intensity of 55 kt. However, based on the forming banding eye feature and an emerging small warm spot visible in the infrared BD-curve enhancement, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. The official intensity forecast follows the IVCN intensity model blend, with little change in intensity expected through the next couple of days. Beyond 48 hours, a weakening trend should commence primarily due to the cyclone traversing cooler water and the intrusion of a stable and dry air mass from the northwest. The current motion is estimated to be 055/3, or northeastward, within the mid-tropospheric flow produced by the larger tropical storm Lowell to the north. The deterministic models indicate that Lowell will continue to influence Karina to move in a northeastward to east-northeastward fashion through day 3. At days 4 and 5, a weakening Lowell is expected to pass to the north and northwest of Karina while a mid-level ridge builds in behind Lowell from the southwestern U.S. The westward building ridge is expected to turn Karina toward the northwest and eventually toward the west by the end of the period. This scenario and the official forecast is based on the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF consensus), and is close to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 15.0N 135.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.8N 135.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 16.6N 134.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 17.3N 132.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 17.8N 131.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 19.0N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 20.7N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 22.3N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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