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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 46
2014-08-24 10:37:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 240837 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Karina has the classic appearance of a sheared tropical cyclone, with a strong IR brightness temperature gradient on the east side of the storm. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS have continued to decrease and the initial intensity has subsequently been lowered to 60 kt. Karina is turning toward the east and the initial motion is estimated to be 65/6, though the motion is a little more uncertain for this forecast since the low-level center has become obscured. A general eastward motion is still expected for the next 36 to 48 hours hours. After that, the dynamical models have finally come into complete agreement that Karina will turn more toward the south once it begins to interact with, and circumnavigate, the large circulation of Hurricane Marie. Shortly after this interaction begins, Karina will be assimilated or completely strained out by the larger vortex. The official forecast has been shifted south, but still shows fairly slow movement at days 3 and 4 since the model spread remains large. Given the decreasing SSTs and increasing vertical wind shear that dominate the environment around Karina, continued weakening appears to be inevitable. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that Karina will become a remnant low within the next 72 hours. No major changes were made to the intensity forecast, which remains near the intensity consensus, IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 17.9N 132.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 18.0N 129.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 18.0N 128.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 17.9N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown
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