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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 49
2014-08-25 04:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 250233 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Karina's cloud pattern continues to rapidly degrade, with the remaining deep convection located about 90 miles west-northwest of the exposed center of circulation. The initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt based on a blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates and an earlier UW-CIMSS AMSU-A intensity estimation. Moderate southeasterly vertical shear, as a result of Marie's large upper-level anticyclone, should result in continued weakening to a depression in 12 hours. The cyclone is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours and ultimately dissipate or become absorbed by major hurricane Marie in 3 days or less, as indicated by the SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be 095/8, within the diminishing low- to mid westerly flow produced by post-tropical cyclone Lowell to the north. Karina should turn toward the east-southeast around the 24 hour period as the cyclone is steered around the southwest periphery of approaching Hurricane Marie. The official NHC forecast track is nudged southward beyond the 24 hour period, following the trend in the GFEX and the TVCE guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 17.5N 129.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.4N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 17.2N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 16.5N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 15.9N 125.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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