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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-08-14 04:43:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140243 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 Analyses from the University of Wisconsin indicate that about 15 kt of east-northeasterly shear is affecting the cyclone, but recent microwave images suggest that Karina is succeeding in maintaining a tight inner core. Maximum winds are held at 45 kt on this advisory based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB and T2.8/41 kt from the ADT. Even though vertical shear is expected to only gradually diminish during the next day or two, its easterly to east-northeasterly direction should still allow strengthening during that time. In fact, the SHIPS rapid intensification index is showing a 1 in 3 chance of a 25-kt increase in winds during the next 24 hours. Since environmental conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening, the NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance, closely following the SHIPS and FSU Superensemble models during the first 3 days. Only gradual weakening is indicated on days 4 and 5, mainly due to less favorable thermodynamic conditions. Karina continues moving westward, or 275/13 kt, to the south of the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to continuing exerting its influence for the next several days, and the track guidance is tightly clustered on a westward trajectory through 48 hours. The spread in the guidance beyond 48 hours appears to be the result of how Karina interacts with two adjacent disturbances. The GFS shows Karina interacting with a strengthening cyclone to its west, with the resulting flow keeping it farther north and on the northern side of the guidance envelope. The ECMWF, on the other hand, shows more interaction between Karina and a possible cyclone to its east, which forces Karina southwestward and on the southern side of the guidance envelope. Due to the high uncertainty in how the pattern will evolve by day 5, the official forecast maintains Karina on a general westward, but decelerating, motion toward the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 17.4N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 17.5N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.6N 118.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 17.7N 120.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 18.0N 122.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 18.5N 127.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 18.0N 131.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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