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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 50
2014-08-25 10:33:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 250832 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 A small area of convection has developed just to the southwest of the center, probably a product of the diurnal maximum cycle. However, the deep convection that was earlier displaced well to the west-northwest has dissipated. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease and a blend of the T- and CI-numbers suggest an initial intensity of 35 kt. Moderate east-southeasterly vertical shear produced by Marie's large upper-level anticyclone to the east, is expected to further weaken Karina. Consequently, the cyclone should continue to spin down and become a post-tropical remnant low within the next 24 hours. The intensity forecast corresponds with the large-scale models and the SHIPS/LGEM statistical-dynamical guidance with dissipation or absorption forecast in 2-3 days. Shortwave-infrared satellite images show that the best estimate of initial motion is 110/9, and this general motion around the western to southwestern periphery of Marie is expected through the entire period before dissipation. The official NHC forecast track is an update of the previous package and is based on a compromise of the GFEX and TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 17.2N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 17.1N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 16.7N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1800Z 16.0N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 15.6N 124.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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