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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-15 10:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150832 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Karina has continued to become a little better organized tonight with a concentrated area of deep convection near and over the estimated low-level center. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 kt, and the initial wind speed is nudged up to 50 kt based on that data. Karina is approaching the 26 C isotherm, and it should be moving over progressively cooler waters during the next several days. These less favorable oceanic conditions combined with a drier and more stable air mass should promote gradual weakening beginning by tonight, and Karina is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in about 60 hours. In addition to the cool waters and dry air, an increase in southerly shear should cause the remnant low to dissipate in 4 to 5 days. The intensity guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at 10 kt. A continued northwestward motion on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge is expected for the next couple of days. After that time, a turn to the west and a decrease in forward speed are forecast as the weak and shallow system moves in the low-level flow. The initial 34-kt wind radii have been reduced based on partial ASCAT overpasses. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 19.8N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 22.0N 123.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 24.0N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z 23.9N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z 23.1N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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