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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-09-16 04:43:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160242 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Satellite imagery shows that Karina's outflow has improved over the past 6 hours, but persistent deep convection over the low-level center has shown some signs of warming/weakening in the last couple hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is maintained at 50 kt, primarily based on a blend of subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of 45-55 kt from SAB/TAFB/HFO. Karina is moving toward the northwest at 10 kt (310/10 kt), steered by a mid- and upper-level ridge to the northeast and north, respectively. Although some relaxation of the recent northeasterly to easterly shear is expected to continue in the short-term, gradual weakening is expected as Karina is now over sub-26C water. As Karina rounds the southwestern portion of the deep-layer ridge in about 24 hours, south to southwesterly shear is expected to increase as the cyclone moves over even cooler waters and ingests increasingly dry air. This will lead to the demise of the cyclone, and Karina is expected to degenerate to a remnant low in a couple of days, dissipating shortly thereafter. As the system weakens, it will be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade wind flow supplied by a surface high centered to the distant northwest, causing a slowing in forward speed, and a turn toward the west and southwest. The new official track forecast has changed little from the previous, and lies very close to the dynamical consensus TVCE. The new intensity forecast is little changed, and closely follows both the statistical and dynamical guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 21.3N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 23.0N 125.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 23.4N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 23.5N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 22.5N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard
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