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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-14 04:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140231 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Karina's satellite presentation is not terribly impressive, with the deep convection sheared well south of what appears to be a somewhat elongated low-level center by 15 to 20 kt of northerly shear. The subjective Dvorak Final-T numbers have decreased a little in the last 6 hours, but overall a blend of the objective and subjective satellite estimates yields an intensity of 40 kt for this advisory. Karina only has a limited window for strengthening, with SSTs forecast to cool to 26C along the forecast track within 36 hours. With the shear forecast to persist during until the waters cool and the atmosphere dries out, the intensity guidance has trended downward again this cycle, and so has the NHC prediction, which is close to or a little above HCCA and higher than the simple consensus aids. Karina should become a remnant low in about 4 days and is expected to dissipate by day 5. The initial motion estimate is 285/11. Karina should be steered generally west-northwestward for the next several days, followed by a turn toward the west in the low-level flow by 96 hours. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 18.2N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 18.7N 118.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 19.4N 119.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 20.2N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 21.0N 122.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 21.8N 123.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 22.3N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 22.5N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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