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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-14 16:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141437 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 There has been little change to the appearance of Karina over the past several hours, with a large area of deep convection remaining displaced mostly to the southwest of the center due to moderate northeasterly shear. Because the general appearance of the cyclone is unchanged, the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on earlier ASCAT data. The shear is expected to slowly relax over the next 24 h while the system remains over relatively warm waters, and some slight strengthening is possible during that time. After 24 h, Karina is forecast to cross the 26 degrees C SST isotherm and begin to enter a drier, more stable atmospheric environment. These factors should cause Karina to steadily weaken beginning by late Tuesday. By 72 h, the cyclone should be over water temperatures of less than 24C, and the system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h, if not sooner. The low is then forecast to dissipate by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the various multi-model consensus aids. Karina has resumed a northwestward movement, and the initial motion is 305/7 kt. A northwestward motion is expected to continue while the deep convection persists, as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Once the cyclone has weakened and lost most of its convection, it is expected to turn toward the west under the influence of the low-level flow. The track guidance has shifted northward at most time frames, and the latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right as well, but is still to the south of most of the track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.1N 118.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 18.8N 119.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 20.0N 120.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 21.2N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 22.3N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 23.7N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 23.7N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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