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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-09-14 22:55:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142055 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 The morning visible images showed Karina's partially obscured low level center under the northeast edge of the cyclone's deep convection. The displacement of the center is due to the ongoing presence of moderate vertical wind shear from the northeast. Cloud top temperatures have generally warmed through most of the morning, though the latest images showed a small burst of deep convection south of the center. An ASCAT pass this morning showed a large swath of 35 kt winds in the southeastern semicircle of Karina's circulation. The initial wind radii have been increased to account for the updated data. Dvorak fixes came in at 35 kt from SAB, and 45 kt from TAFB and PHFO. ASCAT peak winds were 37 kt. Based on a blend of these data, and little change in Karina's appearance in satellite imagery, the initial intensity will be held at 40 kt for this advisory. Moderate shear is expected to continue to affect Karina for another 24 hours. The shear will become weak from 36 to 72 hours, but by then the cyclone is expected to be over sub-26 degree C sea surface temperatures. Most of the objective aids indicate that peak intensity has been reached, and gradual weakening will occur after 24 hours. The intensity forecast closely follows HCCA, and has Karina becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 96 hours, if not sooner. This forecast trend keeps the intensity higher than the statistical guidance. The initial motion for this package is 305/9 kt. Karina is expected to continue moving northwestward to the southwest of a mid-level anticyclone. This motion is expected to continue through 60 to 72 hours. Karina should turn toward the southwest as deep convection ceases and the cyclone becomes steered by the low level flow. The forecast track has been adjusted a bit northward from the previous forecast, in part due to an adjustment in the initial position, and closely follows the HCCA guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 18.5N 118.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 19.4N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 21.9N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 24.0N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 23.5N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kodama
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