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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-15 04:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150239 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Karina may not have reached its peak after all. The northeasterly vertical wind shear appears to have eased a bit, allowing the dense cirrus overcast from the central convection to fully obscure the low level cloud center. The cyclone also appears to be better organized than 24 hours ago. As a result, most of the Dvorak intensity estimates have increased, with ADT up to 39 kt, and PHFO and TAFB indicating 55 kt. SAB was unchanged from the 6 hours ago at 35 kt. Based on a blend of the estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory has been increased to 45 kt. The 12 ft seas radii have also been adjusted based on guidance from TAFB. Moderate shear should continue to affect Karina for another 12 to 24 hours. The shear is forecast to weaken after that, but by then the cyclone is expected to be over sub-26 degree C sea surface temperatures. There is still a narrow window for additional intensification, but most of the guidance holds the intensity for another 12 to 24 hours, with gradual weakening occurring afterward. The forecast holds Karina at 45 kt for 24 hours, followed by weakening to post-tropical remnant low status by 72 hours. This is close to the HCCA guidance. The initial motion for this advisory is 310/10 kt. Karina is forecast to continue moving northwestward to the southwest of a mid-level anticyclone. This motion is expected to continue through 60 to 72 hours. Karina should turn toward the southwest as deep convection ceases and the cyclone becomes steered by the low level flow. The objective guidance is tightly packed through around 60 hours, with variations occurring thereafter regarding when the southwestward turn will occur. The forecast track is close to the previous forecast and closely follows the consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 19.1N 119.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 20.0N 120.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 21.3N 122.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 22.4N 123.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 23.3N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 23.8N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 23.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z 23.5N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kodama
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