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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 19
2017-08-23 04:37:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230237 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Kenneth continues to slowly weaken. The eye feature that was evident several hours ago has filled in, and a recent SSMIS microwave pass shows that the system is now more asymmetric due to southerly shear. A pair of ASCAT passes from around 1800 UTC showed maximum winds in the 55-60 kt range. Assuming some weakening since the time of that data, the initial wind speed is lowered to 55 kt. This estimate is also in agreement with a blend of the latest T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Kenneth is over cool 24 deg C waters, surrounded by dry air, and moving toward an environment of even higher southerly wind shear. These hostile conditions should cause the system to keep weakening, and the NHC forecast now calls for Kenneth to become a remnant low in 36 hours. The remnant low will likely only slowly spin down as depicted by the global models. This intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The tropical storm is moving north-northwestward at 10 kt on the west side of a mid-level ridge. This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days while the system moves into a pronounced weakness in the ridge. By the end of the forecast period, the shallow cyclone is expected to turn to the northwest in the low-level flow. Little change was made to the previous NHC track prediction, and this forecast lies closest to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 22.6N 134.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 24.0N 134.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 25.7N 135.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 27.0N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z 28.0N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z 29.2N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z 30.2N 138.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z 31.5N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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