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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-08-19 16:46:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 191446 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 A couple of recent microwave overpasses has revealed that the center of Kenneth remains near the northeastern edge of the deep convection. Although the upper-level outflow is well established over the southwestern and western portions of the circulation, it is somewhat restricted over the northeastern quadrant due to about 15 kt of shear as diagnosed by a UW-CIMSS shear analysis. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers are around 3.0 (45 kt) from the various agencies, but the initial wind speed is conservatively raised to 40 kt, since I would rather wait to see visible satellite images to get a better handle on Kenneth's structure. Kenneth is moving west-northwestward, 285 degrees, at 14 kt. The tropical storm is moving around the southwestern portion of a low- to mid-level ridge that is located just west of the southern Baja peninsula. Kenneth is expected to reach the western portion of the ridge in about 48 hours, which should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward later in the period. The track guidance remains in good agreement through 48 hours, but diverges after that time. The latest run of the GFS has shifted a little westward, but remains along the eastern side of the guidance envelope, with the ECMWF along the western edge. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged westward to be closer to the various consensus aids that have generally shifted in that direction this cycle. The global models predict that the upper-level wind pattern over Kenneth should become more conducive for strengthening over the next day or so. During that time Kenneth will be moving over SSTs of 27 to 28C, which should allow for intensification, and the NHC foreast once again brings Kenneth to hurricane strength on Sunday. After 48 hours, decreasing SSTs should result in gradual weakening. The updated NHC intensity foreast is a little above the statistical guidance and ICON consensus model through 48 hours, but is generally close to the HFIP corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 15.8N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 16.4N 124.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 17.0N 126.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 17.9N 128.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 18.9N 130.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 21.5N 132.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 24.3N 133.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 27.0N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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