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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-08-09 22:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 092032 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 Visible satellite imagery and satellite wind data have revealed today that Kevin is a poorly organized tropical cyclone. The circulation is elongated from northeast-to-southwest, with one dominant, exposed low-level cloud swirl pivoting around the larger cyclonic gyre. The center has been initialized a little to the southwest of the exposed swirl, closer to a generalized mean cyclonic center. Satellite wind data also indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the southern semicircle, with a swath of 35-41 kt winds covering an area up to 110 n mi from the estimated center. Assuming some instrument undersampling, and based on the latest pair of 3.0 (45 kt) T-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains at 45 kt. Kevin has not been able to get its act together over warm waters and within the favorable thermodynamic environment, likely due to moderate northeasterly shear and a subsequent lack of persistent deep convection over the center. The overall environment that the storm is interacting with is not expected to change much over the next 36 h. And, since the structure of the cyclone is not conducive for imminent strengthening, additional intensification is no longer anticipated. After 36 h, Kevin will begin to move over decreasing SSTs and into a more stable atmospheric environment. These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to begin weakening. By 96 hours, the system is forecast to be over water temperatures of less than 22 degrees C, which should result in the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low. The latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted slightly lower once again, and is in good agreement with the latest consensus intensity guidance. Kevin continues to move to the west-northwest, or 300/08 kt, along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This steering pattern is forecast by all of the forecast models to remain intact for the next several days, resulting in a continued west-northwestward motion. The track guidance has once again shifted slightly northward after 24 h. Therefore, the latest NHC track forecast was also nudged a little to the north, and lies on the southern end of the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.0N 112.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 17.7N 113.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 18.5N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 19.3N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 20.4N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 22.0N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 23.6N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z 25.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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