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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-08-10 04:34:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100233 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 Kevin remains a sheared tropical cyclone with most of the convection displaced to the southwest of the elongated inner-core wind field due to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. However, some small curved bands of shallow convection have recently developed in the eastern semicircle, suggesting that the shear might be starting to abate somewhat. The initial intensity has been decreased to 40 kt, more in line with earlier ASCAT surface wind data that showed peak surface winds near 40 kt. The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 295/08 kt. There is no change to the previous track forecast reasoning. Kevin is expected to continue moving west-northwestward through the 120-h forecast period along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. The new NHC track forecast is just a tad to the right or north of the previous track, but remains near the southern portion of the track model envelope, between the ECMWF model to the south and the consensus models to the north. Kevin is forecast remain under the influence of at least modest northeasterly to easterly wind shear for the next 48 h. Thus little change in strength is expected despite he warm sea-surface temperatures (SST) exceeding 28C and a very moist mid-level environment exceeding 80 percent relative humidity. Thereafter the shear is forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt, which would normally favor intensification. However, Kevin will be moving over near-22 deg C SSTs at that time, so weakening rather than strengthening is forecast in the 72-120 period. The latest official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the consensus models HCCA and IVCN, and the Navy COAMPS-TC model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 17.4N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 18.1N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 20.0N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 21.0N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 21.8N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 22.7N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z 24.6N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 26.2N 132.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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