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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-08-11 16:34:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 111434 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Shortwave infrared images show that the center of Kevin's broad circulation is exposed to the northeast of a persistent cluster of deep convection, resulting from 15-20 kt of east-northeasterly shear over the system. With Dvorak T-numbers holding steady at T3.0 from TAFB and T2.5 from SAB, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Recent geostationary images and a 0943 UTC GCOM overpass warranted a slight adjustment to the initial position, which now makes the initial motion northwestward at 325/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric high located over northern Mexico is expected to keep Kevin on a northwestward to west-northwestward path for the next several days, which is shown by all the track models. Most differences among the models are speed related, with the ECMWF being one of the fastest models and the GFS one of the slowest. In general, the NHC track forecast is close to the consensus aids, but the initial position adjustment required a fairly noteworthy northeastward shift in the forecast track compared to the previous advisory. Kevin's center is just about ready to move over waters cooler than 26 degrees Celsius and should be over waters as cold as 21 degrees in a couple of days. Also, the shear affecting the storm is only expected to diminish gradually, and these conditions should induce imminent weakening. In line with the latest intensity guidance, Kevin is likely to weaken to a tropical depression within 24 hours and then become a remnant low in about 48 hours when it loses all of its deep convection. This scenario is shown by the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 21.0N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 22.0N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 23.2N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 24.4N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 25.6N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z 28.3N 128.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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