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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-08 22:35:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 082034 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 The earlier burst of deep convection almost completely dissipated, leaving the core of the low-level circulation briefly exposed. However, over the past couple of hours new convection has redeveloped over the center of Kevin. This disruption, possibly aided by moderate northeasterly shear, put a temporary pause on the cyclone's strengthening. The latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased to 3.0 (45 kt), while the CI-values remain at 3.5 (55 kt). Based on a blend of these numbers, the estimated initial advisory intensity remains 50 kt. Kevin is forecast to remain over warm waters while embedded in a moist and unstable atmospheric environment for the next 48 h or so. The main inhibiting factor for intensification is the persistent vertical wind shear, which is forecast to persist for the next few days. Kevin is forecast by all of the intensity guidance to overcome this shear, and slowly strengthen over the next two days. After 60 h, Kevin should begin to move over decreasing SSTs and into a more stable atmospheric environment, which should cause the cyclone to steadily weaken. By 120 h, the system is forecast to be over waters of less than 23 degrees C, likely causing the cyclone to become devoid of deep convection. The only notable change in the latest NHC forecast from the previous one was to introduce the mention of the system as post-tropical by day 5. Otherwise, the latest forecast remains near the IVCN consensus aid. Kevin continues to move westward, or 270/7 kt. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning. A mid- to upper-level trough west of the Baja California peninsula is expected to weaken the western portion of the ridge that is currently steering Kevin westward. This should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward overnight and this west-northwestward heading is then expected to continue for the remainder of the forecast period. The latest track guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 15.8N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 16.0N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 16.6N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 17.3N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 19.0N 116.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 19.8N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 21.5N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 23.0N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Latto
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