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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-09 16:34:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 091434 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 Kevin has been successfully battling moderate northeasterly wind shear overnight, as a large convective mass with cloud tops colder than -80 degrees C has persisted for several hours over the center and southwestern portion of the cyclone's large circulation. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates have a large spread, ranging from 55 kt from TAFB to 35 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. A mean of 45 kt from these values suggest that the storm's initial intensity remains the same as 6 h ago, which seems reasonable as the overall appearance of Kevin has changed little this morning. The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 300/07 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This steering pattern is forecast by all of the forecast models to remain in tact for the next several days, resulting in a continued west-northwestward motion. The only notable change in the track guidance was a slight shift to the north, and the latest NHC track forecast lies in between the previous one and the tightly clustered track guidance. The favorable thermodynamic environment and warm water have allowed Kevin to maintain deep convection despite the vertical wind shear. With the large amount of convection occurring near and over the center of the cyclone, it is possible for some slight strengthening to occur in the short-term, despite wind shear persisting over the next couple of days. By 48 hours, Kevin will begin to move over decreasing SSTs and into a more stable atmospheric environment. These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to begin weakening. By 96 hours, the system is forecast to be over water temperatures of less than 23 degrees C, which should result in the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low. The latest NHC intensity forecast was decreased slightly from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the various intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.6N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 17.3N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 18.1N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 18.9N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 19.7N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 20.6N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 23.0N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z 24.5N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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