je.st
news
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 22
2019-09-17 22:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 172038 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Convection has been struggling near the center of Kiko today, with only some re-development near the core of the cyclone during the past couple of hours. There's a pretty big disparity in the initial wind speed estimates this afternoon. Recent ASCAT data supports 40-45 kt, while other estimates are still near hurricane- force. Weighing the scatterometer data heavier than most gives an initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory. Kiko is on track toward the west-southwest, steered by a ridge extending from the central Pacific. The forecast continues to shift to the south with time, with a stronger ridge anticipated, and the model guidance is more consistent in showing two west- southwestward dips, one at the current time and one after day 5. The new NHC track prediction is somewhat south of the previous one, but this time it is fairly close to the model consensus, hopefully indicating that the southward shifts are done for the time being. While the current shear near Kiko should relax later today, it could take some time before the storm can recover from the effects of the shear. Kiko will probably to re-strengthen in a day or so, in part due to the cyclone moving over warmer waters in a low-shear environment. Afterward, there is very little agreement on the long-range upper-level wind forecast, leading to wildly divergent intensity forecasts by day 5 in the models, ranging from a tropical depression to a category 4 hurricane. For now since the track forecast brings Kiko again over warmer waters, a slight increase in wind speed is shown, and this could be conservative at the end of the 5-day period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 16.8N 125.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 16.4N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 16.2N 126.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 16.1N 127.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.5N 128.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 17.0N 130.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 17.0N 131.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 16.0N 133.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||