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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 24
2019-09-18 10:47:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 180847 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Kiko is trying to recover from all of the shear that affected it for the past few days. An earlier microwave pass showed that most of the convection was confined to the southern semicircle. Over the past few hours, deep convection has been looking a little more organized near the storm's center. Whether or not this is the start of a trend is too early to tell, and a blend of the subjective and objective intensity estimates indicate that the initial intensity remains near 45 kt. Kiko continues to move southwest, or 240/04 kt. There is no change to the forecast track philosophy. Kiko will be steered in a mean westerly trajectory for the next several days by mid-level ridging to the north of the cyclone. Some northward or southward deviations in the forward motion are expected from time to time due to fluctuations in the strength of the ridge. The official forecast is very close to the previous one, and near the multi-model track consensus aids. Kiko is expected to remain in a low shear environment and will soon will be moving over higher oceanic heat content. This should result in gradual strengthening. In a few days, the cyclone will begin to move into a drier and more stable environment which should limit any further intensification during the forecast period. The latest forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and is near the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 16.5N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 16.2N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 16.1N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.3N 128.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 16.6N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 17.2N 130.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 16.7N 132.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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