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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 26
2019-09-18 22:50:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 182050 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Kiko has apparently continued to strengthen. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates at 1800 UTC were all 55 kt, so the intensity is raised to that value. At least slow additional strengthening is possible during the next few days. Wind shear that previously affected the cyclone seems to have decreased, and Kiko is far enough south that it should remain over fairly warm waters for the next couple of days. The HWRF and HMON models were not available for this forecast, but previous runs showed the potential for possibly significant strengthening during the next couple of days. On the other hand, the statistical guidance is much lower. Without any new dynamical intensity guidance available, it seems wise to make no large changes to the intensity forecast this cycle, but it is slightly higher in the short term to account for the higher initial intensity. In general, the NHC forecast is a little above the intensity guidance at all forecast hours. The initial motion is 250/6 kt, but the tropical storm is still forecast to turn westward within the next few hours. Kiko is still expected to snake its way westward during the next 5 days as a mid-level ridge to the north builds, weakens, and then builds again. The global models all show this general scenario and vary mainly in the forward speed of the cyclone. Very little change was made to the NHC forecast, which is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 15.8N 127.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.6N 128.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 15.8N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 16.2N 129.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 16.7N 130.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 17.0N 131.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 16.0N 134.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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