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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 27
2019-09-19 04:31:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190231 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Kiko's appearance has not changed substantially during the past 6 hours. Although the wind shear is very light, at least some dry air appears be getting into the inner core of the tropical storm, limiting Kiko's deep convection. The intensity remains 55 kt based on the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON and subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates. Both dynamical intensity models (HWRF and HMON) show that Kiko will eventually reform an inner convective core and strengthen, but do so several days apart. It seems likely, given the light shear and warm SSTs beneath the tropical storm, that Kiko will restrengthen at some point. That said, determining the exact timing is probably beyond our current ability to forecast tropical cyclone intensity. The NHC intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the next several days, as shown by HCCA, but I would not be surprised if Kiko is nearly steady-state for a day or two, and then strengthens at a faster rate than expected. Confidence in the intensity forecast is therefore somewhat low. The initial motion is now 265/5 kt. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast. Oscillations in the strength of a mid-level ridge to the north Kiko should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward in a day or so, and then back toward the west another day after that. After Kiko reaches the crest of its curvy path, it is expected to turn southwestward yet again by the weekend. The model guidance is in remarkably good agreement for such an unusual track and the NHC forecast remains near the multi-model consensus, with a little extra emphasis placed on the ECMWF which has thus far handled the forecast of Kiko quite well. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.8N 127.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 15.9N 128.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 16.2N 129.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 16.7N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 17.2N 130.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 17.1N 132.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 16.1N 134.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 17.0N 137.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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