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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 32
2019-09-20 10:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200833 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Kiko has generally changed little during the last several hours. The low-level center is located near the southwestern edge of a persistent area of deep convection. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear as estimated by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and the latest SATCON estimate. Kiko is moving slowly northwestward, and is expected to continue in that general direction through today. A turn to the west and then west-southwest is expected this weekend as a mid-level ridge builds to the northwest of the cyclone. After that time, the models diverge considerably, with some taking Kiko northward and others westward. The differences in the models appear to be at least partially associated with the vertical depth of Kiko early next week. The NHC track forecast lies again roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the various consensus aids. Although the details of the track forecast are still uncertain, it seems likely that Kiko will continue to move slowly over the southwestern portion of the east Pacific basin for several more days. Since there is significant uncertainty in the track forecast, the future intensity of Kiko is also uncertain given that the environment is very track dependent. The models, in general, show Kiko changing little in intensity, and the NHC forecast does likewise. This forecast is a tad lower than the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 17.0N 130.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 17.6N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 17.9N 131.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 17.9N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 17.4N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 16.5N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 17.4N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 18.3N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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