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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 33
2019-09-20 16:47:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 970 WTPZ43 KNHC 201447 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A pair of microwave images between 0900 and 1100 UTC revealed that Kiko has redeveloped a well-defined low-level inner core. However, most of the deep convection associated with the tropical storm is located northeast of the center, a result of moderate southwesterly shear. The intensity of Kiko has been raised slightly to 50 kt based on an average of the most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. Kiko is now moving north-northwestward, but is still expected to turn generally westward, and then west-southwestward as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the cyclone during the next couple of days. Toward the end of the forecast period, the ridge could weaken (again) and Kiko could turn northwestward (again) but the models vary on the details of exactly when and where this will happen. Regardless, Kiko seems destined to continue weaving its way slowly westward through early next week. Only small adjustments to the track forecast were made, which remains near HCCA and TVCE. Kiko has a chance to strengthen a little more today while it continues on its current heading. After that, every intensity model forecasts that Kiko will slightly weaken or level off, and the NHC forecast shows the same. Only a small tweak was made to the NHC forecast for the first 24 hours to account for the higher initial intensity of Kiko, and the new forecast is identical to the previous advisory after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 17.7N 130.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 18.1N 130.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 17.9N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 18.0N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 19.0N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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