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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 35
2019-09-21 04:37:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210237 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A 2145Z AMSR2 overpass from GCOM-W1 showed a mid-level eye displaced to the northwest of the low-level center. Dvorak classifications were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest SATCON estimate from UW-CIMSS was 56 kt, so the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory. The above-mentioned AMSR2 pass and a partial SSMIS pass at 2355Z showed the center of Kiko was located farther east than previously estimated. After some adjustments to the working best track, the initial motion estimate is 325/04. The guidance still shows Kiko moving on a wave-like trajectory as mid-level ridge to the north fluctuates in intensity during the forecast period. The new NHC track is close to the latest consensus aids and similar to the previous NHC forecast, but is a little faster, trending toward the speed of the consensus aids. There is a lot of spread in the model guidance, by day 5, with the GFS and ECMWF over 400 n mi apart, so confidence in the details of the track forecast is low especially late in the forecast period. All of the intensity guidance shows quick weakening with Kiko, as the cyclone moves over marginal SSTs and in a somewhat stable and dry atmospheric environment. The new NHC intensity forecast has been nudged downward, and is near or a little above the latest intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 18.3N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 18.0N 132.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 17.2N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 16.6N 134.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 18.5N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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