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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 36
2019-09-21 11:00:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210900 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on recent Dvorak satellite intensity estimates. All of the intensity guidance continues to show quick weakening as the cyclone moves over marginal SSTs and into a drier and slightly more stable environment. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, except the intensity has been held steady for the next 36 hours due to forecast very low shear conditions by the GFS and ECMWF models. The initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt. Despite this most recent slow northward jog, the new NHC guidance still shows Kiko turning westward later today, followed by an unusual wave-like motion as mid-level ridge to the north fluctuates in strength during the 5-day period. The new NHC track is close to the latest consensus aids and similar to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 18.8N 130.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 18.6N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 18.0N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 17.2N 133.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 16.7N 134.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 17.3N 136.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 18.9N 137.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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