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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 37
2019-09-21 16:53:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 211453 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 A couple of recent microwave images shows that the low and mid-level centers of Kiko are not vertically aligned due to some southwesterly shear. The center is located beneath the cold cloud tops, but is near the southwestern edge of the convective mass. Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from both agencies and SATCON estimates from UW/CIMSS are between 50-55 kt, therefore the initial intensity is held at 55 kt but this could be a little generous. Little overall change in strength is foreast during the next couple of days while Kiko remains over SSTs of 26-27C and in generally low shear conditions. After that time, increasing southerly shear and a marginal thermodynamic environment are likely to cause gradual weakening. The updated NHC wind speed forecast is very close to the previous advisory. It appears that Kiko has turned westward or 270/3 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to north of Kiko is forecast to strengthen today, which is expected to cause the cyclone to turn southwestward later today. A southwestward motion should continue for a couple of days, but the dynamical models weaken the ridge after that time, and Kiko is likely to turn back northwestward early next week. The track guidance is in decent agreement on this scenario and the NHC forecast lies near the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 18.4N 131.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 18.1N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 16.5N 134.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 16.0N 135.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 17.7N 137.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 18.9N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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