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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 41
2019-09-22 16:52:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 221452 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 A small area of deep convection has continued to pulsate near the center of Kiko overnight and this morning. The most recent satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB still support winds of 35 kt, and this is used for the advisory intensity. Kiko has a small window of opportunity in which to re-strengthen as it moves over warmer waters and into an environment of lower wind shear within the next 24-36 h. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and decreasing SSTs should cause weakening and Kiko is again forecast to become a remnant low by 96 hours. Kiko is moving southwestward at 7 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning for this advisory. Kiko should continue southwestward today, before turning westward, and then northwestward Monday and Tuesday as a mid-latitude trough cuts off to the northwest of the cyclone. After Kiko weakens to a remnant low, it should turn southwestward once again as it is steered by the low-level flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 16.5N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.9N 134.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 15.8N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 16.6N 136.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 17.9N 137.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 19.4N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 18.7N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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