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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 47
2019-09-24 04:39:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240239 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 Earlier this afternoon, infrared satellite imagery showed the initial presence of an eye developing. Since that time, the gradient of the convection has become sharp over the southwestern semicircle, with that cirrus clouds now covering the eye-like feature. This suggests that the anticipated southerly shear over the cyclone could be beginning. The initial intensity remains at 50 kt, and this is based off a combination of the available subjective and objective intensity estimates. Kiko is moving northwestward at 10 kt. There is no change to the forecast track philosophy. Kiko is expected to turn to the northwest tonight, and that motion should continue through Tuesday in the flow between a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a mid- to upper-level low to its west. By Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn back to the west as the shallower system is steered by the the low-level trade winds. Based on the current forecast track, Kiko is expected to enter the central Pacific basin by tomorrow night. Since it now appears that the shear is beginning to occur over the storm, the forecast no longer calls for any additional strengthening. The southerly shear is expected to increase much more tomorrow, and the system should begin to entrain dry and stable marine air to its west. This is expected to cause a weakening trend to begin, and by Wednesday, Kiko is expected to become a tropical depression, and it will likely become a remnant low shortly thereafter. Other than removing the near term intensification, the official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 17.0N 137.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 18.0N 138.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 19.1N 140.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 19.7N 141.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 19.8N 142.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 19.5N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z 19.5N 146.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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