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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 48
2019-09-24 10:43:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240842 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 Satellite and microwave data indicate that the center of Kiko is no longer in the middle of the central dense overcast. Instead, increasing shear has caused the low-level center to be displaced to the southwestern edge of the deep convection. Intensity estimates are decreasing, and the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which agrees best with recent 40-45 kt ASCAT data. Kiko is moving northwestward at 9 kt. The storm is expected to turn to the west-northwest on Tuesday in the flow between a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a mid- to upper-level low to the west. By Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn back to the west and eventually south-of-west as the shallower system is steered by the low-level trade winds. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one, except adjusted southward on days 2-3. The storm should continue to weaken over the next few days due to persistent south-southwest shear, marginal water temperatures, and a dry mid-level environment. Guidance tonight has accelerated the transition into a non-convective remnant low, with everything now showing post-tropical status by 48 hours. The new forecast is lower than the previous one, following the trend in the models, and could be too slow in showing the storm's demise. Still, Kiko has been one for the record books and should enter the top 10 in longest-lived eastern Pacific tropical cyclones by midday Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 17.5N 138.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 18.5N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 19.4N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 19.7N 142.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 19.5N 143.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z 18.5N 145.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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