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Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
2024-09-30 22:42:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 20:42:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 20:42:14 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 14
2024-09-30 22:41:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 302040 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Visible satellite imagery this afternoon depicts increasing bursts of convection just east and especially just north of the generally exposed low-level center of Joyce. This precludes downgrading Joyce to a post-tropical remnant low with this advisory, though that could happen as early as tonight if the burst does not organize. The intensity of the depression was held at 30 kt for this advisory based on continuity. Joyce has moved very little over the past 12 to 24 hours, but the current motion estimate was held at an uncertain 360/2 kt. The official forecast track shows a slow northward motion until Joyce fully dissipates within 48 h, with little change from the previous track forecast. Continued deep-layer shear and dry air encompassing Joyce is forecast to inhibit additional convection and lead to the cyclone becoming a remnant low soon. The intensity forecast remains unchanged from the previous one, showing Joyce becoming a remnant low in 12 h with dissipation in about 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 22.7N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 23.4N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1800Z 24.8N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z 26.5N 48.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Konarik/Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2024-09-30 22:40:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 302040 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics