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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-08-07 16:43:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018 453 WTPZ43 KNHC 071442 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018 The cloud pattern of Kristy is a little better organized with several clusters of deep convection. The Dvorak T-numbers are now 3.0/45 kt, and this data is now in better agreement with the earlier ASCAT pass that was mentioned in the previous discussion. Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt. Kristy is within a low shear environment, and most of the guidance indicates gradual strengthening. The NHC forecast brings Kristy to hurricane status in a couple of days while the cyclone remains over warm waters. By the end of the forecast period, the circulation will begin to be affected by cooler waters, which should result in weakening. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270 degrees at 8 kt. The track forecast during the first 24 hours or so is fairly straightforward since the cyclone is embedded within deep easterlies. Thereafter, the easterly flow will be interrupted by the larger circulation of Hurricane John passing to the north of Kristy, and the cyclone will most likely turn northward in response. The spread in the guidance becomes large after 24 to 36 hours with the ECMWF model keeping Kristy on a west-northwest path while the GFS shows a northward motion as Kristy interacts with John. The NHC forecast is in the middle of these two options and very closely follows the multi-model consensus. It should be noted that there is low confidence in the long range track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 13.8N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 13.9N 127.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 14.2N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 14.8N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 16.0N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 18.0N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 20.5N 131.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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