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Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-08-16 04:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 231 WTPZ44 KNHC 160233 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 Overall, Lane's cloud pattern has become a little better organized this evening. Modest east-northeasterly shear, however, along with some drier air, appears to be undercutting the diffluent outflow above 300 mb and is impinging the north through northeast portion of the cyclone. An outer deep convective curved band, on the other hand, is now developing over most of the eastern half of the system. The surface center is also located a bit further in the northern edge of an expanding, colder, central dense overcast. The initial intensity is increased to 45 kt, and is based on a compromise of the TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates (T3.0), and a 2205 UTC SATCON analysis (51 kt). Little change has been made to the previous intensity forecast, and it still shows a rapid increase of nearly 55 kt in 48 hours based on the Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical Rapid Intensification Index (DTOPS) which indicates a 67 percent chance of RI occuring during this particular period. The NHC forecast is weighed heavily on a blend of the COAMPS-TC and the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model (HCCA), and indicates Lane intensifying into a category 3 hurricane in 3 days. Lane's motion is estimated to be westward, or 265/11 kt, a little to the left of due west, and is being steered by a broad mid-level ridge to its north-northwest. The large-scale models continue to show the ridge weakening in 2 days in response to a southwestward and westward retrograding cut-off mid-level low currently located southwest of the Baja California coast. At that time, the cyclone should gradually turn west-northwestward and continue in this general direction through the remaining period of the forecast. The official forecast is very close to the previous one, with only minor along-track adjustments, and sides with the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 10.4N 125.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 10.4N 127.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 10.7N 129.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 11.1N 132.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 11.6N 135.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 12.9N 140.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 14.3N 145.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 15.2N 149.3W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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