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Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-08-16 10:51:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 755 WTPZ44 KNHC 160851 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 The latest satellite images suggest that Lane is getting better organized with its cloud pattern now consisting of a central dense overcast feature and curved bands over the western semicircle. There is a large spread in the intensity estimates tonight. All of the Dvorak-based estimates have increased to 3.5/55 kt. However, an ASCAT pass around 0600 UTC showed maximum winds of only 35 kt. Since Lane is a compact system, it is possible that the resolution of ASCAT is not sufficient to capture its maximum winds, therefore, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt as a compromise of these data. It should be noted that this is a low confidence initial intensity estimate. Lane is now moving due westward at 10 kt steered by the flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. The global models all show a mid- to upper-level trough off the Baja California peninsula cutting off and moving westward during the next few days. This feature will weaken the ridge a little, and that should cause Lane to make a slight turn to the west-northwest in a couple of days. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on this forecast, Lane is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin this weekend. The environmental conditions appear quite favorable for Lane to strengthen. During the next several days, the wind shear near Lane is expected to be less than 10 kt, humidity values relatively high, and SSTs sufficently warm. Therefore, steady or even rapid strengthening appears likely. The NHC intensity forecast continues to lean toward the higher end of the model guidance, and shows Lane becoming a hurricane in 12 to 24 hours, and a major hurricane within the next few days. This forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 10.4N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 10.6N 128.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 10.9N 131.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 11.4N 133.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 11.8N 136.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 13.1N 141.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 14.4N 146.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 15.1N 150.3W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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