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Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-08-16 22:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 648 WTPZ44 KNHC 162036 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 Satellite images indicate that Lane is trying to form a ragged eye, with an interesting mid-level mesocyclone rotating counterclockwise around the northern side of the circulation. While Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB indicate Lane is already a hurricane, values from microwave data are a bit lower, and the cyclone only recently started to potentially form an eye. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, close to the latest CIMSS SATCON figure. Further intensification is expected, and given the warm waters, low shear and moderate mid-level humidity, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility. The new NHC forecast is basically an update from the previous one, on the high side of the guidance, and could be conservative. The initial motion estimate continues at 275/11. The synoptic pattern is well defined with a subtropical ridge persisting to the north. While the ridge could weaken somewhat in a few days, a west or west-northwestward track is anticipated throughout the forecast period. The spread in the guidance has decreased somewhat since the last advisory, and the newest model consensus has basically come in right on top of the last NHC forecast. Thus the new NHC track prediction is nearly unchanged, staying close to a blend of the dynamical model consensus and the corrected-consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 10.6N 128.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 10.9N 130.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 11.4N 133.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 11.9N 136.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 12.5N 139.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 13.8N 143.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 14.8N 148.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 15.3N 152.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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