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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 35
2024-10-11 04:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 10 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 110232 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 10 2024 Leslie's center continues to be well exposed to the north of the convection, as northerly wind shear continues to impact the system. A recent scatterometer pass depicted winds of 50-55 kt. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB and UW-CIMSS have come down this cycle and range from 45-55 kt which is in good agreement with the scatterometer pass. Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory is lowered to 55 kt. The storm is within a rather hostile environment with strong northerly shear displacing the convection from the center, and this shear is expected to persist over the next few days. Leslie is also dealing with very dry mid-levels as is depicted on GOES-16 water vapor imagery and the drier airmass continues along the forecast track. Models differ on the type of post-tropical system Leslie will eventually become, with the possibilities being either a remnant low or an extra-tropical low. The NHC forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low in 48 h with model simulated satellite depicting Leslie will fail to produce organized deep convection within the harsh environment. However, if the system is able to continue to produce convection for the next 36- 48 h, Leslie will approach a frontal zone and take on some frontal characteristics and become extratropical at that time. Either way, by day 4, the post-tropical low is forecast to dissipate into a open trough. Leslie is moving north-northwestward, or 345/8 kt. Models are in fairly good agreement that a turn to the north will occur early Friday as the storm rounds the edge of the subtropical ridge located over the eastern Atlantic. The system will then turn northeastward with an increase in forward speed through the weekend. There was a slight left shift in the latest forecast guidance, as well as some along track spread. The latest NHC forecast was nudged left and is a little faster than the previous, near the simple consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 24.4N 51.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 25.9N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 28.4N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 31.5N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 34.6N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 13/1200Z 36.6N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/0000Z 37.1N 29.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 35
2024-10-11 04:31:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 110231 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 51.2W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 135SE 120SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 51.2W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 51.1W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.9N 50.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.4N 49.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.5N 45.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.6N 40.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 36.6N 34.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 37.1N 29.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 51.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-11 01:41:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 102341 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton, located off the east coast of central Florida. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): Recent satellite wind data show that a broad low pressure area with winds of 30 to 35 mph has formed in association with a tropical wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. However, the system's shower and thunderstorm activity is currently poorly organized. Some additional development could occur while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic and the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and Friday. By Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable, and further development is unlikely after that time. Regardless of development, localized areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight through Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics