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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 36
2024-10-11 10:43:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 110843 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 Leslie remains a sheared tropical storm this morning. Based on geostationary satellite imagery, the low-level circulation is still exposed and limited bursts of deep convection in the southern semicircle are moving southwestward away from the center. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates continue to trend downward and the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt to represent a blend of the final-T and CI numbers (T3.0/3.5) from TAFB and SAB. The storm should continue to weaken during the next couple of days. Model guidance agrees that the vertical wind shear will remain moderate-to-strong, the mid-level humidities will gradually become drier, and the sea surface temperatures will cool along the forecast track. Leslie should lose its organized deep convection by Sunday, if not sooner, based on simulated satellite imagery. There is still the possibility the storm will take on some extratropical characteristics in 48-72 h as well. For now, the NHC intensity forecast still shows Leslie becoming a post-tropical cyclone over the weekend and dissipating early next week. Leslie is rounding the western edge of a subtropical ridge and has turned northward at 9 kt. A turn to the north-northeast is expected later today, followed by an acceleration to the northeast and east-northeast over the weekend. The latest track forecast is essentially the same as the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 25.5N 50.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 27.1N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 30.0N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 33.1N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 35.6N 37.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 13/1800Z 36.8N 31.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/0600Z 37.5N 26.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
2024-10-11 10:38:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 110838 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC FRI OCT 11 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132024)
2024-10-11 10:38:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE HEADING NORTHWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 11 the center of Leslie was located near 25.5, -50.8 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics