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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 9
2024-10-04 16:45:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 041441 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 A recent SSMIS microwave pass depicted that Leslie is continuing to become better organized and is trying to develop an inner core. Burst of deep convection have continued to develop mainly on the southern semi-circle as the system is still battling some deep-layer northeasterly wind shear. Given the improved convective pattern the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have increased this cycle with a data-T 3.5/55 kt, from both TAFB and SAB. Using these estimates and the improving structure, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory. Leslie is moving slowly westward at 280/5 kt, along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge will continue to steer Leslie, with a gradual turn west-northwestward then northwestward as it rounds the ridge. Leslie should continue north-westward with a slight increase in forward speed through the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very near the previous forecast track, which lies between the HCCA HFIP-corrected consensus and simple consensus aids. Northeasterly shear should begin to decrease later today as Hurricane Kirk continues to pull further away from the system. Strengthening is then forecast over the next 2-3 days with warm sea surface temperatures, upper-level divergence and low deep-layer shear. The intensity guidance, especially the peak has come down this cycle, and that is a combination of a few factors. In about 3 days, Leslie is forecast to move over the cold wake of Kirk, and encounter increasing dry air, mid-level shear, and the upper-level pattern also become a little less diffluent. This should cause the intensity of Leslie to plateau through the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and is slightly lower than the previous forecast, but lies near the higher end of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 10.0N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 10.3N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 10.8N 35.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 11.4N 36.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 12.4N 37.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 13.8N 39.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 15.3N 40.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 18.2N 44.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 20.9N 47.7W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2024-10-04 16:42:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 14:42:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 14:42:46 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 9
2024-10-04 16:40:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 041440 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 33.0W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 33.0W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 32.7W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.3N 34.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 10.8N 35.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.4N 36.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.4N 37.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.8N 39.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.3N 40.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.2N 44.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.9N 47.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 33.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics