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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-09-01 10:47:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010846 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 Cloud top temperatures have been warming during the past few hours, and the convective pattern appears to be losing some organization as Lidia interacts with the high terrain of Baja California Sur. Still, Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remained T3.5, and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. Recent ASCAT passes missed Lidia's core, but they did indicate a large swath of tropical-storm-force winds extending over the southern Gulf of California. Fixes suggest that Lidia has been moving more slowly during the past 6-12 hours, and the motion estimate is now toward the northwest (325 deg) at 7 kt. The storm is embedded between a mid-level high centered over the southwestern United States and a mid-level trough southwest over the Pacific, and these features should keep Lidia on a northwestward course for the next three days. Lidia's center is likely to move onshore south of Cabo San Lazaro later this morning and then cross on/off the western coast of the Baja California peninsula through 36 hours. While most of the track models are fairly well clustered, the GFS remains the fastest model, and the ECMWF is still one of the slowest. The new NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one and lies between the GFS and ECMWF solutions, closest to TVCN and HCCA. Lidia is expected to weaken over the next couple of days, especially as the circulation continues to move over the Baja California peninsula. However, tropical-storm-force winds will continue to extend well east of the center, riding up the peninsula and adjacent Gulf of California for the next 36 hours. Once Lidia permanently moves off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, it will be located over the cold waters of the California Current and will likely be unable to generate deep convection. For that reason, it should be a remnant low by 48 hours. After that time, Lidia will begin to interact with a deep-layer low located off the coast of California, and it is now expected to dissipate or be absorbed by that low by day 4. Since Lidia's center is expected to move onshore soon, and the storm is not likely to strengthen in the short time beforehand, the government of Mexico has discontinued the hurricane watch for southern Baja California Sur. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 23.8N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 25.1N 111.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 02/0600Z 26.8N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR COAST 36H 02/1800Z 28.1N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 03/0600Z 29.3N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0600Z 31.8N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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