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Tropical Storm Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-09-01 16:50:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 011450 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017 Satellite imagery indicates that the center of Lidia has made landfall on the Baja California peninsula west of La Paz. The convective organization of the cyclone has decreased over the past several hours and, based on this and continuity from the previous advisory, the initial intensity is decreased to 50 kt. The storm continues to have a large wind field in the eastern semicircle as shown by a recent report of tropical-storm-force winds in Los Mochis on the Mexican mainland. The initial motion is 325/8. Lidia remains between a mid-level high centered over the southwestern United States and a mid-level trough southwest over the Pacific, and these features should keep Lidia on a general northwestward course for the next three days. The new forecast track has the center over or just off of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula for the next 30-36 h before emerging over the Pacific Ocean. Overall the new track is an update of the previous track that lies close to the various consensus models. Steady weakening is expected while the circulation interacts with the mountainous terrain of Baja California. However, tropical- storm-force winds will continue to extend well east of the center, riding up the peninsula and adjacent Gulf of California for at least the next 24 hours. When Lidia emerges over the Pacific, it is expected to be over sea surface temperatures near or below 24C, which should cause it to quickly decay to a remnant low. The new intensity forecast is also an update of the previous forecast and lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. While Lidia should steadily weaken, the heavy rainfall threat will continue over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Moisture from the cyclone could reach the southwestern United States over the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 24.6N 111.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 02/0000Z 25.8N 112.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 02/1200Z 27.4N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 03/0000Z 28.6N 115.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 03/1200Z 29.9N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1200Z 32.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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